Growth, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence

本文由科睿研究院社会科学部Distinguished Fellow, Augustin Fosu刊发于Research in Economics

Abstract: The study presents comparative global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early-mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analyzed for the $1.25 and $2.50-level poverty headcount ratios using World Bank Povcalnet data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this ‘average’ dominant-growth story. While in the majority of countries, growth was the major factor behind falling or increasing poverty, inequality, nevertheless, played the crucial role in poverty behavior in a large number of countries. And, even in those countries where growth has been the main driver of poverty-reduction, further progress could have occurred under relatively favorable income distribution. For more efficient policymaking, therefore, idiosyncratic attributes of countries should be emphasized. In general, high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth. It would seem judicious, therefore, to accord special attention to reducing inequality in certain countries where income distribution is especially unfavorable. Unfortunately, the present study also points to the limited effects of growth and inequality-reducing policies in low-income countries.

本研究提供了发展中国家经济增长向减贫转变的全球比较证据，重点是收入不平等的作用。研究的重点是 1990 年代初中期以来的时期，这一时期这些国家作为一个整体的增长相对强劲，超过了发达经济体。利用世界银行 Povcalnet 数据，对 1.25 美元和 2.50 美元贫困人口比率的地区和国家数据进行了分析。研究发现，平均而言，收入增长是贫困减少和增加的主要推动力。然而，该研究记录了被这种 "平均 "的主要增长所掩盖的地区和国家之间的巨大差异。虽然在大多数国家，增长是贫困减少或增加的主要因素，但在许多国家，不平等在贫困行为中起着至关重要的作用。而且，即使在那些以增长作为减贫主要驱动力的国家，在相对有利的收入分配条件下也可以取得进一步的进展。因此，为了更有效地制定政策，应重视各国的特殊属性。一般来说，初始不平等程度高会限制增长在减少贫困方面的有效性，而不平等的加剧则会在一定的增长水平上直接增加贫困。因此，在某些收入分配特别不利的国家，特别关注减少不平等似乎是明智之举。遗憾的是，本研究还表明，在低收入国家，增长和减少不平等政策的效果有限。

文章全文： Research in Economics

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