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【成员作品新译】《从复古经济学到制裁经济学：非常规经济学论文集》（一）
日期：2025-10-17 作者/来源：科睿研究院


书籍介绍



我们很高兴代表CORE Academy—国际科学与人文学院成员弗拉基米尔·帕帕瓦（Vladmier Papava）教授向大家翻译及分享他的最新学术著作《从复古经济学到制裁经济学：非常规经济学论文集》。


本书是一本探讨经济学前沿问题的论文集，其研究范围突破了传统经济学框架的限制，聚焦于那些非平凡且极具争议的议题。书中不仅为当前经济学面临的危机进行了辩护，还提出了诸多克服危机的创新性建议。


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作者：弗拉基米尔・帕帕瓦 (Vladimer Papava)


译者：吴家睿（Raymond J. Wu）、张文闻（Wenwen Zhang）、吕俊成（Juncheng Lyu）


编辑：科睿研究院秘书处、科睿青年学社团队


本文版权归原作者弗拉基米尔・帕帕瓦所有。中文翻译由科睿研究院完成，在此特别感谢李彦蓉和吴夕源在文字翻译与编辑工作中提供的支持与协助。


为方便读者查阅与引用，本书的 参考文献（Reference）和索引（Index）部分保留英文原文，其余部分则译为中文。在翻译过程中，我们在作者的正式授权下，结合中文语境，对部分表述进行了适度的润色与调整，以确保内容的准确性与可读性。


本书之译本仅供学术研究与学习使用，禁止任何形式的商业用途。如对原著或译本有任何疑问或建议，欢迎联系科睿研究院秘书处：academy@kerui.org。


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FROM RETROECONOMICS TO SANCTIONOMICS:

ESSAYS ON UNCONVENTIONAL ECONOMICS


Copyright © 2024 Vladimer Papava.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced by any means,

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except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

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views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Getty Images are models,

and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

Certain stock imagery © Getty Images.

ISBN: 978-1-6632-6577-7 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-6632-6578-4 (e)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2024916141

Print information available on the last page.

iUniverse rev. date: 11/27/2024


【成员作品新译】《从复古经济学到制裁经济学：非常规经济学论文集》（序言+导论文章）


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ESSAY 1 

论经济学危机及克服危机的一些方向1







1.1 导言


传统经济学拥有大量经典教科书，这些教材之间并无显著差异，并在世界各国广泛传播。学界对上述文献普遍认为，有必要对其中提出的关键问题进行批判性分析、修订和重新评估（如 Rhoads 2021；Rodrik 2024）。对这类教科书的批判性评论最早可追溯至 20 世纪 70 年代（Linder, Sensat 1977a, 1977b），此后它们也一直是批判性讨论的常见对象（如 Kanth 1997）。针对经济学未来发展的批判性反思几乎从未中断（Hey 编 1992；McCloskey 2022）。


几乎所有经济学教科书都建立在并非总是正确的假设之上。因此，经济学必须摆脱种种幻想（Heath 2010）和神话（Fox 2009；Hicks, Klages, Raffa 编 1971；Mishan 1986；Paarlberg 1968；Syll 2023）。错误的源头问题尤为重要，特别需要明确区分经济学作为一门学科本身的错误，与经济学家作为个人所犯的错误（Deaton 2023；Krugman 2023；O’Neill 2023；Stiglitz 2024, 21–42）。同时，有必要强调经济学家对宏观历史以及各国历史进程的重大影响（如 Blaug, Vane 编 2003；Ogg 2023；Rhoads 2021）。


此外，传统经济学未能真实反映一些现象。其中一个典型例子是所谓的影子经济。传统经济学教科书在探讨经济规律时，往往假设经济运行完全合法，忽视了影子经济的存在。然而，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的研究显示，1991–2015 年间，158 个国家的影子经济规模平均占其经济总量的 31.9%，几乎相当于全球经济的三分之一（Medina, Schneider 2018）。除影子经济外，还有许多其他问题未在传统经济学中得到充分呈现，要找到切实可行的解决方案，仍需付出更多努力。


同样重要的是，必须研究那些能够揭示现代经济弊端的问题。例如，金融部门以挤压实体经济部门为代价实现了前所未有的扩张，这在全球范围内普遍存在。几乎所有经济学家都认为，这一反常现象是导致金融危机的重要原因（如 Kindleberger, Aliber 2005），因此有必要对国际货币和金融体系进行改革（如 Stiglitz 等 2010）。然而，迄今尚未制定出较为有效的机制来解决这一问题。


类似的反常现象还有很多。例如，经济学至今未能解释，为什么一名从事热门体育运动（如足球、篮球、拳击）的明星运动员年薪会远高于最具权威性的诺贝尔科学奖奖金（且该奖项常在两位或多位得主之间分配），或为什么在医疗服务领域“客户”取代了“病人”。


20 世纪及 21 世纪初发生的金融和经济危机，提出了许多传统经济学以往未曾涵盖的问题（如 Brunnermeier, Reis 2023）。这些危机还加剧了经济学各流派之间的对立，以至于有人认为经济学本身已经名存实亡，甚至宣称“经济学已死”（Davies 2010, 175–184）。


因此，诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗纳德·科斯将传统经济学称为“黑板经济学”（Coase 1988, 3）。


在这种背景下，发展新的经济学思维方式（Berman 2022），以及推动经济学改革（Chester, Jo 编 2022；Keen 2022），被提上了议事日程也就不足为奇。


【1】Essay 1是基于Papava（2018）的研究




1.2 两次危机： 经济学与全球经济


经济学中存在的问题并非新鲜事。最有力的证明来自俄罗斯著名经济学家伊戈尔·比尔曼（Igor Birman：”他在移居国外后曾指出，几个世纪以来，资本主义一直在发展，却无需“文盲经济学家”的参与及其建议或秘方（Birman 1996, 521）。这是一个令人遗憾的事实，但我们必须承认，经济学常常表现出被动性，其主要功能似乎是对现实进行解释（e.g., Grigoryev 2023）。而如果解释被证明是正确的，经济学便被视为“成功”。


尽管经济科学拥有数百年的历史经验，却并不总能及时、准确地回应当下的紧迫问题。例如，众所周知的经济增长理论未能真正推动经济增长（Stroup 2023）；而主流经济学在 2020–2022 年期间对通货膨胀的判断也出现严重失误（Galbraith 2023a, 2023b；Stiglitz 2023）。


经济思想史上确实存在一些成功案例，即某些“弊端”在数年内被克服，从而为经济发展提供了新的理论动力。例如，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在大萧条背景下提出的理论催生了凯恩斯主义学派；20 世纪 70 年代的滞胀则推动了诺贝尔奖得主米尔顿·弗里德曼发展货币主义（Skidelsky 2018a）。


然而，经济学在一些其他案例中则表现出部分克服弊端甚至完全失效的局面。二十世纪末共产主义政权垮台后，从指令性经济向市场经济的转型便是其中最典型的案例。许多知名经济学家指出，这一历史性转变是 20 世纪末最重要的现象之一，其对经济思想发展的影响可与 20 世纪 30 年代的大萧条（Avtonomov 1996, 11）或二战后的欧洲重建（Fischer, Frankel 1992；Sachs 1992；Wolfson 1992）相提并论（Stiglitz 1992, 137）。


然而，正如诺贝尔奖得主加里·贝克尔和约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨所言，经济学理论并未能在转型初期为诸多紧迫问题提供合理解答（Becker, Becker 1997, 259；Stiglitz 1996, 3），结果在许多情况下，仅仅建立了“准市场经济”（Le Grand, Bartlett 编 1993）。


遗憾的是，尽管已有对转型经验部分归纳总结，但至今未能发展出系统性的经济理论（Papava 2005）。比尔曼对此评价极为严厉，称经济学在应对市场化转型问题时一再表现出“令人信服的无能”（Birman 1996, 521）。


通常，经济危机能够推动经济学理论进步，但 2008–2009 年全球金融与经济危机并未带来任何重大突破（Krugman 2018）。回顾来看，经济学长期以来未能为资本主义经济及其未来前景提供切实答案（Heilbroner, Milberg 1996），这一结果并不令人意外。此外，随后十年制定的经济政策基本未能吸取危机经验教训（El-Erian 2017；Pressman, Scott 2018）。在寻求现代经济政策新范式的过程中，“生产主义”（productivism）被视为有可能取代新自由主义的有力候选（Rodrik 2022）。


金融与经济危机爆发后，对经济学的批判愈演愈烈，围绕现代经济学基本原理的反思讨论也愈加活跃（Banerjee, Duflo 2011, 2019；Bookstaber 2017；Leiashvily 2012；Papava 2018；Rodrik 2015a；Turner 2012；van Staveren 2015）。这种讨论涉及的不仅是“经济学家与经济学”（Rodrik 2015b）的关系（Birks 2016；Fullbrook 2016；Marqués 2016；McCloskey 2010；Pilkington 2016；Söderbaum 2017；Syll 2016, 2023），也涵盖宏观经济学（Kaletsky 2017；Di Muzio, Noble 2017）和微观经济学（Hill, Myatt 2010）。这一持续的辩论对于经济学未来能否达成某种共识至关重要（Rodrik 2014）。


令人遗憾的是，多数诺贝尔经济学奖得主避而不谈经济发展、国际经济、全球金融等现实议题。只有少数例外，获奖者才会积极回应经济科学与现代世界的核心问题。事实上，处于经济学学术金字塔顶端的经济学家常常选择对现实经济保持沉默，这一趋势在诺贝尔奖获奖者身上尤为明显。部分原因在于，诺贝尔经济学奖频繁授予那些研究成果与现实挑战关系不大的学者（Offer 2016；Offer, Söderberg 2016）。而这种“沉默”并非个别现象，而是一种普遍的全球性倾向。


此外，对主要经济学期刊作者地域分布的分析表明，这些期刊主要发表来自北美和西欧，即少数富裕国家学者的文章（Fontana 等），而其他地区的声音缺席不仅造成学术不公，也使经济科学的视野和内涵趋于狭隘（Rodrik 2021）。




1.3 加密货币与经济学的无助性


经济学理论滞后于经济现实的一个突出例证，便是加密货币的出现及其迅速传播。比特币于2009年1月3日首次发布，正值全球金融与经济危机暴露银行体系深层脆弱性之时（Skidelsky 2018b）。事实上，米尔顿·弗里德曼早在1999年便预言了类似比特币的电子货币将会问世（Cawrey 2014）。


比特币的官方发明者“中本聪”是否真实存在迄今仍存疑，其发行与流通的经济机制亦并不清晰（Shiller 2018, 2020, 3–12）。然而，比特币的受欢迎程度逐年上升，最直接的体现便是其价格的持续攀升。面对“为何人们购买比特币”以及“需求为何不断增加”的疑问，约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨指出，这主要源于比特币所提供的匿名性与保密性（Golstein 2018），这也使得其能够规避现有法律监管（Myers 2017）。


这种匿名特性使比特币及其他加密货币成为犯罪分子进行金融交易的理想工具（Roubini 2018），也为政治行为体利用其作为“大规模杀伤性金融武器”提供了便利（James 2018）。


在此背景下，俄罗斯的经验颇具代表性：该国官方一方面多次打压比特币，但自2017年起也曾提出广泛使用加密货币，并不排除发行本国主权加密货币以对抗比特币竞争。通过将加密货币合法化，莫斯科至少试图绕过《马格尼茨基法案》（Magnitsky Act）所施加的金融制裁（Johnson 2017）。2022年俄乌战争及2023年哈马斯与以色列之间的军事冲突进一步证实，加密货币在非法战争融资中发挥了重要作用（Bag 2023）。


针对加密货币的监管立场在国际上分歧显著。约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨认为，加密货币应当被全面禁止（Bach 2017），并在法律上被视为非法支付手段（Myers 2017）。然而，日本却给予比特币法定货币地位，从而巩固了其全球金融科技中心的地位（Rogoff 2017）。萨尔瓦多试图将比特币作为国家法定货币的尝试（Kurmanaev, Avelar 2022）则最终以失败告终（Krugman 2022a）。



1.4 克服经济学危机的主要方向


现代经济学研究面临的最严重问题之一，是对“真实的人”的忽视（e.g., Raworth 2024），并以高度抽象化的“经济人”模型予以替代（Bee, Desmarais-Tremblay 2023）。虽然这一模型足以解释市场经济中一些基本且简化的规律，但与真实的人类行为相去甚远（Haldar 2023a）。


长期以来，“自然人”与“人造人”之间的关系一直困扰着经济学家。诺贝尔经济学奖得主詹姆斯·布坎南曾深刻指出：“人追求自由，并非为了最大化自身或社会的效用，而是为了成为他想成为的人”（Buchanan 1979, 112）。因此，有学者断言，经济人这一模型早已走到尽头（Brockway 1995），甚至“已经消亡”（Tittenbrun 2013）。


那么，这是否意味着经济学家将完全拒绝应用经济人模型呢？在我看来，这个问题的答案是否定的，因为简简化的人类假设仍可为某些研究目标提供有价值的洞见。例如，通过使用人的因素的转变来描述后共产主义时期向市场经济转变的过程，这一过程可被视为苏维埃人（Sharafutdinova 2023）向经济人的转变过程，其结果是出现了一种新的人的模式，即转变人（Homo transformaticus）（Papava 1996, 260–264）。就其本质而言，“转化人”结合了“苏维埃人”和 “经济人”的主要特征。有趣的是，转化人模型比经济人和苏维埃人模型更接近真实的人类，因为两者的特征都在转化人身上得到了体现。然而，变形人显然与真实的人类相去甚远。


因此，经济学家最重要的任务之一就是，他们研究中使用的人类模型必须最大程度地接近真实的人类（e.g., McCloskey 2022; e.g., Raworth 2024; Smith, Wilson 2019）。实现这一目标，经济学必须引入其他社会科学的研究工具，如哲学、心理学、法学、政治学等（e.g., Akerlof, Shiller 2010; Haldar 2023b; Jolls et al. 1998; Thaler, Sunstein 2021）。在此背景下，性别与女性主义视角下对经济人模型的扩展尤为值得关注（e.g., Goldberg 2023; Goldin 2021; Nelson 1998; Varoufakis 2024; Ferber, Nelson, eds. 1993, 2003）。


经济实践与经济科学之间的巨大鸿沟已是不争事实。英国著名经济学家罗伯特-斯基德尔斯基（Robert Skidelsky）批评当前主流经济学将经济等同于一台“可被数学完全描述的精密机器”，导致现代经济学家沦为“白痴专家”（Skidelsky 2016）。他还提到，不幸的是，未来的经济学家没有接受过哲学、心理学、历史学和政治学的教育，这意味着他们对现代经济学的了解仅限于经济模型（Skidelsky 2016）。这大大削弱了经济学家们可以使用的科学语言，让经济学家们仅能在狭隘的模型框架内理解经济现象。


关于科学语言与现实，有许多重要的研究（e.g., Devitt, Sterelny 1999; Marsonet 1995）。众所周知，现实是基于现有的科学语言进行研究的，而科学语言在研究过程中会进一步丰富。


如上所述，如果把经济学等同于精密的机器，那么经济学的科学语言就过于简单，无法研究经济现实。虽然数学的应用加深了对经济现实的研究，但同时，仅仅应用数学也减少了更全面反映现实多样性的机会。这一点也不奇怪，因为数学并不详尽，不足以充分反映整个社会范围。在经济学家中，有一种观点认为，计量经济学方法和一般的数学方法在研究经济现象时不可能具有建设性（e.g., Shostak 2023）。


研究经济现实（或“经济机器”）的简化方法最清楚地反映在经济学家在研究中有意或无意使用的那些假设（或条件）中。每一个假设都简化了现实，因为研究者只关注某一因素（或一组因素），而排除了其他因素的变化。这种方法为数学的应用提供了肥沃的土壤，使研究人员更容易或多或少地深入研究某一问题。此外，根据这些假设，这种方法没有回答一个问题，即经过研究的特定规律性在多大程度上足以正确反映现实的多样性（Rodrik 2015a, 2024）。


研究者在多大程度上有意识地考虑了具体假设，一个指标就是“ceritas paribas”或“所有其他条件不变”这组神奇的词语，它告诉读者在研究中现实已经被简化了。


这是否意味着经济学家应该拒绝使用这个神奇的词组或应用数学方法呢？当然不是。如果不使用这些方法，就完全不可能研究一般的经济现实。重要的是，不应该认为这些研究的结论已经完成，必须运用哲学、心理学、法学、历史学、社会地理学和政治学的成果继续进行研究。毫无疑问，我们不应拒绝将数学应用于经济研究。相反，与数学一起，上述社会科学方法的应用将丰富经济学的科学语言。换句话说，有必要开展跨学科研究，以克服经济科学现有的危机状况（e.g., Rodrik 2024）。


例如，我们可以参考地缘经济学这一相对较新的科学方向（e.g., Blackwill, Harris 2017; Klement 2021; Kvinikadze 2017; Luttwak 1990; Søilen 2012; Troxell 2018; Wigell, Scholvin, Aaltola, eds. 2020），它迄今为止尚未成为经济学家深入科学研究的主题。遗憾的是，地缘经济学并不属于经济学家的直接科学兴趣，地缘经济学研究主要被视为政治科学代表和国际关系研究者的特权。然而，正是地缘经济学为解决任何国家的许多具体经济（不仅是经济）问题提供了钥匙。


由于俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争以及西方国家对俄罗斯实施的经济制裁，扩大经济学的边界成为经济安全的一个紧迫问题（Arezki 2022; Papava 2022）。


现代经济学不能落后于时代，这一点非常重要。特别是，它必须涵盖现实本身提上日程的问题。例如，与人工智能相关的经济问题（Agrawal et al. 2022; Coyle 2021; Georgieva 2024; Moyo 2023）。


各种经济理论之间存在的矛盾是一个独立的问题。由于存在矛盾，关于哪种经济理论正确的一般性问题就不那么具有建设性了。正如在绘画中，我们必须从不同的角度（视角）来展示一个对象，我们可以同意，各种经济理论是从不同的角度（视角）反映同一经济现实，随着经济现实的变化，相对于其他理论，某一特定的经济理论可能会更充分地反映特定的问题。


综上所述，笔者认为，在经济学发展的现阶段，从各种经济理论中找出一个或多个共同的组成部分，将有助于我们对这些理论进行综合（Hsieh, Magnum 1986）。这方面最好的例子之一就是将供给侧经济学与凯恩斯主义经济学综合起来（e.g., Ananiashvili, Papava 2014; Langdana 2010）。发展综合经济理论也很重要，因为这样可以得出更符合经济现实的结论（e.g., Tuerck 2015）。


尽管本文仅探讨了经济学转型以克服危机的部分基本路径，但可以预见，这些改革若能付诸实践，将对未来经济研究的质量和现实解释力产生积极影响（Papava 2018）。




1.5 结论


当下，几乎无人再怀疑经济学正经历一场深刻的危机。作为一门学科，它不仅未能令人满意地反映复杂多变的经济现实，甚至在多数情况下，仅能提供对现实事后的解释。


回顾过去，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在大萧条背景下提出的理论曾对经济政策产生划时代影响，而20世纪70年代的滞胀又推动了米尔顿·弗里德曼货币主义的兴起。然而，自那之后，直至今日，经济学领域鲜有新的宏大理论能够与这两者相提并论，提出对当下经济现实具有同等影响力的创新解释。即便在2008–2009年全球金融与经济危机之后，经济学家们亦未能从危机的深层教训中汲取足够经验来推动理论上的重大变革。


这一危机最直观的例证，或许便是全球范围内对加密货币的狂热。尽管其对货币体系、支付机制乃至经济安全产生深远影响，却仍长期游离于主流经济学研究的边缘。


克服经济学危机的关键，在于重新审视并凸显“人”的因素。单一、机械化的“经济人”模型显然无法满足当代经济问题的研究需求。经济学必须以多元化视角理解人的行为与选择，并借助哲学、心理学、法学、政治学等社会科学的理论与方法进行丰富和拓展。


要实现这一转变，经济学研究必须跨越学科边界，摆脱对“ceteris paribus”（其他条件相同）等过度简化假设的过度依赖。在研究设计中，哪怕减少一部分“不变”前提，也能使所得结论更接近现实的复杂性。与此同时，经济学家应避免将不同理论学派简单对立，而应着力探寻其共通之处，从而推动理论的综合化发展。这一方向不仅更具建设性，也更有希望恢复经济学解释与指导现实经济的能力。


注释


1. 当前的讨论并未提出真正意义上的新经济理论，而仍停留在凯恩斯主义框架之内（Krugman 2012）。值得注意的是，面对21世纪初全球经济危机，新凯恩斯主义宏观经济学家同样显得无力应对（Skidelsky 2018a）。

2.  尽管应批判经济学家未能解决经济科学的根本性问题，但也须承认其在企业发展和政策制定中仍发挥着主导作用（Litan 2014）。

3. 值得指出，“homo post-sovieticus”（Sharafutdinova 2023, 91–105）一词与“homo transformaticus”概念内涵相近，均强调后苏联空间中的人类行为模式变迁。





关于作者



弗拉基米尔·帕帕瓦是一位国际知名的经济学家，拥有丰富的学术研究与政治实践经历。他是Core Academy-国际科学与人文学院Fellow（社会科学部）与科睿研究院学术委员，同时也是第比利斯国立大学的经济学教授。


帕帕瓦教授还担任格鲁吉亚国家科学院院士兼总秘书长。


帕帕瓦教授的研究领域广泛，涵盖应用经济学、后共产主义经济体、宏观经济学、经济增长、经济发展以及地理经济学。他创立了“死亡经济学”的概念，作为后共产主义经济转型的理论基础，并提出了“逆经济学”理论，用以解释技术落后的经济现象。此外，他还建立了拉弗-凯恩斯综合模型，并制定了消除经济增长指标中的追赶效应的方法。


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在政治生涯方面，帕帕瓦教授曾担任格鲁吉亚经济部长，积累了丰富的政策制定与实施经验。他还曾担任第比利斯国立大学校长，推动了学术研究和教育改革。他的研究不仅关注理论创新，还致力于解决实际经济问题，如全球化转型、大规模经济制裁的经济外部性，以及中高加索-亚洲地缘经济问题。


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